Effect of western disturbances, temperature and rainfall on wheat yield in Punjab

The maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall analyses during reproductive period (February and March) of wheat crop for Ludhiana, Ballowal Saunkhri and Bathinda were conducted from 2011–12 to 2016–17. Wheat yield of Ludhiana (1990–91 to 2016–17), Bathinda (2001–02 to 2016–17) and Ballowal Saunkhri (1990–91 to 2016–17) were collected from the Statistical Abstracts, and corresponding meteorological and western disturbances (WDs) data were collected from Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana/Research stations and India Meteorological Department, Chandigarh. The relationships between number of western disturbances and wheat yield for each location were conducted. It has been observed that the western disturbances’ frequency increased from 2012–13 to 2015–16 and again decreased in 2016–17 in Punjab. Correlation analysis between wheat yield and WD indicates significant and negative values at Ludhiana. The highest R² value of 0.88 was observed at Ludhiana. The increased frequency of western disturbance during February and March had a significant negative effect on wheat yield. The years having a smaller number of WDs recorded the highest yield and vice-versa at all the locations. Low minimum and maximum temperatures during February and March favoured the higher yield at all the three locations. The results also indicate that during the highest yield years, the rainfall at reproductive phase was very low at all the locations.