Simulation and analysis of maize (Zea mays L.) yield trend under different emission scenarios in Ludhiana district of Punjab

The study helps us to understand the future scenario of maize yield under current farming practices. The maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall as projected by the four selected global circulation models (GCMs) (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble of seventeen GCMs) were used for yield simulation of maize cultivars (PMH1 and PMH2) in Ludhiana region of Punjab using CERES-Maize. Yield decline was observed under experimental dates of sowing (28^th May, 6^th June, 15^th June and 24^th June) for all the GCMs except FIO-ESM which predicted increase in yield for both the cultivars PMH1 (+22.13)) and PMH2 (+14.28) on 24^th June. The projections revealed that the region can experience large decrement in maize yield under RCP 8.5 (high emission scenario) and small under RCP 2.6 (low emission scenario). Though the second fortnight of June could be considered as a better sowing date but a single model prediction is not reliable. Thus, further analysis of sowing window is required.