Effect of temprature rise on growth and yield of wheat: a simulation study

A dynamic computer simulation mode), CERES-Wheat was used as a research tool to evaluate the effect of temperature change at various growth intervals on wheat crop. The results revealed that temperature increase from normal in December and January affected the phenological development of wheat by advancing the anthesis stage and thereby reducing the duration of tillering phase while in February it reduced duration of grain formation. The maximum leaf area index of wheat was adversely affected by temperature increase above normal in December, January and first fortnight of February. Temperature increase from normal by 3.0°C during first fortnight of February, second fortnight of February and first fortnight of March reduced grain yield of wheat by 1.8, 5.1 and 6.0% from normal, respectively. Further analysis revealed that increase of temperature from normal in first fortnight of February decreased grain yield at the rate of 95 kg/ha per degree Celsius increase in temperature. A similar increase in temperature in second fortnight of February and first fortnight of March resulted in 167 kg/ha and 105 kg/ha per degree Celsius decrease of grain yield, respectively.